Obama - The unknown commodity

Kashmir has remained one of the main problems that the Indian democracy is facing next to, poverty, corruption and bureaucracy. We all know what the basic issue is. Pakistan is claiming Kashmir. (In fact, the 'K' in 'Pakistan' represents Kashmir) But India says Kashmir belongs to India. And the problem still is going on. It seems like it will never end. We have already fought 3 full fledged wars and have faced numerous insurgencies. The Kashmir state is still consuming biggest chunk of Indian defense budget. Numerous soldiers have lost their life, both in India and Pakistan. People in Kashmir are constantly living under fear. If there were a peaceful period in Kashmir, it was during Musharaff rule in Pakistan. That is the only time, India had a decent oppurtunity to conduct talks about the Kashmir problem.

What exactly is the solution then? There is no peaceful solution. If Kashmir is merely a political issue, it can be sourted out. But it has become a nationalist issue. It is far from a normal border dispute. It has become Indians Vs Pakistanis. The general population itself is angry over this issue. Pakistani people are determined that Kashmir should be in Pakistan. Same goes to Indians as well. Many people have suggested that the LOC should be peacefully agreed as the international border between Pakistan and India. But i dont think that is gonna happen.

India is a diverse nation. Actually, to call india a diverse nation, is an under-statement. India is too diverse. India is so fragmented with respect to any cultural issue that you can possibly imagine. The regional politics in India is getting stronger, which in one way good, because it is a good signal that the Democray is more mature now. But also, is a bad signal, as there is not a central unification factor in India. This diversity is a crucial player in deciding who is gonna get Kashmir. If India is willing to give up Kashmir, it can create numerous violences around the country. Trust me, Kashmir is a liability for India. But giving up Kashmir can have serious repurcussions.

Enough said about India. Do you think Pakistan will give up Kashmir to India? Nope. Not gonna happen. So what is the solution then? I have no idea. My prediction is, the Kashmir problem will go on for years without a solution. Kashmir can be given more regional autonomy in the Indian constitution like the Kashmiri people want. But that is not completely feasible too.

But am afraid the US is gonna interfere in the Kashmir problem, which will undoubtedly be skewed towards Pakistan and which will seriously disturb the India-America relationship. India has always denied any support - nope intrusion is the right word - from foreigners when it comes to Kashmir issue. But am afraid, Obama is gonna push for a resolution for this problem, which will create tensions. As many analysts point out, India-Pakistan problem is the first reason for a rise in Islamic terrorism in the region. Above all, Obama had Afghanistan and 'killing Osama' as his cheif Campaign promises. To do that, he definitely needs Pakistan. If pakistan should cooperate and help the American troops, Kashmir issue should be solved or atleast American experts think so. There is a wide spread speculation that Obama will introduce a special position in his cabinet, a rather powerful one. It will be called the "South Asian envoy". People are speculating that the position will have extra ordinary powers and someone very knowledgeable will be appointed soon. In that case, trust me, that person will concentrate on Kashmir. In that case, as i said, Kashmir will once again become a major issue. According to Obama, Kashmir is part of the problem, rather than the part of a solution for the American resolve in Afghanistan.



And at the same time, there are also predictions that the US will continue to be an ally for india. If you think about it, they need India to have a check on China, which is slowly emerging as a powerful nation, which has already started demanding US for many things. Usually it the other way round. 

I read a related article in Reuters today. you can read it here. And you can read another interesting article here, about Indo-US relationships and foreign policy challenges for both India and US. The Indian govt and its top diplomats are calling Obama "the unknown commodity". Rightly so. Lets wait and see. The first 100 days of the president are very crucial.